Pensions will rise by around 3.5% in 2027: what is guaranteed and what depends on the electoral calendar

Since the 2021 reform, article 58 of the Social Security General Act sets the annual rise according to average inflation over the twelve months from the previous December to November of the current year. The statistics office publishes November's flash CPI on November 27 and the final figure on December 15.

Current estimates, with September CPI at 4.9% and forecasts of 4.4-4.6% for October and November, point to a revaluation close to 3.5%. The exact percentage will only be known with November's data, but the margin of error is already small.

A caretaker government is limited to ordinary business, except in cases of urgency or general interest. The Economy Ministry argues the pension update fits that exception and could be approved in December, although state lawyers must confirm the legal footing.

In practice, the only difference for pensioners is when the money arrives. If the decree is passed in December, January's payroll already includes it; if delayed to January or February, Social Security pays the accumulated difference in a lump sum. In 2019, in an identical situation, it was paid with full retroactivity.

With a 3.5% reference, a 1,000-euro pension would move to around 1,035; a 1,400-euro one to around 1,449; and the maximum pension, above 3,200 euros, would exceed 3,300 euros a month across 14 payments.